What Moldova’s EV Programme Actually Tells Us About the Market

Moldova’s 48-page electric mobility plan is the most complete overview of the country’s EV market so far. It brings together data on vehicles, charging infrastructure, electricity use, financing, and policy targets. The document shows where the market may grow. It also shows where the data, targets, and financing do not yet match.

In August 2026, Moldova’s Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development published a draft National Electric Mobility Programme 2030. The document covers vehicle targets, charging infrastructure, energy use, workforce training, and access outside the main cities.

The programme brings several separate datasets into one place. These include vehicle registration figures, electricity projections, charging infrastructure data, and budget estimates. For anyone studying Moldova’s EV market, it is a useful starting point.

It also reveals the current limits of the market. Some of the gaps and contradictions are more important than the official targets. This article uses the programme as a source of market data. It does not review the policy in full. It looks at what the document tells us about the market and its investment potential.

The fleet: growing from a small base

Moldova had approximately 1.39 million registered vehicles in 2025, up from 1.17 million in 2022. This means an increase of roughly 211,000 vehicles in three years, or about 70,000 per year during that period.

The number of vehicles per 1,000 people has also almost doubled in ten years, from 194 to 375.

The programme reports about 9,850 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as of early 2026. Data presented at the CNED pre-feasibility study presentation on 9 June 2026 showed more than 11,500 BEVs. That is a 17% increase between the two figures.

The two figures come from different sources and may not be fully comparable. Still, recent registration data shows that BEV growth is strong. The exact annual growth rate depends on the period and starting figure used.

The programme also reports 77,985 “hybrid” vehicles. This is where the data becomes less clear.

The programme’s objectives refer to “electric and plug-in hybrid” vehicles, meaning BEVs and PHEVs. However, the baseline data does not separate plug-in hybrids from conventional hybrids and mild hybrids.

This difference matters. Conventional hybrids use petrol as their main energy source and do not normally use public charging infrastructure. As a result, the share of vehicles that can actually use charging points is lower than the programme’s wider “electrified vehicles” figure. The programme does not provide enough information to calculate the exact share.

The programme sets a 2030 target of 45,000 BEVs and 110,000 PHEVs. Reaching 45,000 BEVs from a base of roughly 12,000 would require strong and sustained growth. It is ambitious, but possible if recent growth continues.

The PHEV target is more difficult to assess because the programme does not yet measure the category clearly.

The programme also refers to a wider target of 25% electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the national fleet by 2030. The detailed targets listed above — 45,000 BEVs and 110,000 PHEVs — add up to 155,000 vehicles. That is roughly 11% of the current national fleet.

The document does not clearly explain how these figures relate to each other. The 25% target may refer to another measure, such as new vehicle registrations, but this is not clear from the text. This makes it difficult to assess the programme’s actual level of ambition.

The infrastructure: small, concentrated, and underused

The programme estimates that Moldova had more than 250 public charging points in 2025. The network is concentrated in Chișinău and along several national road corridors. Rural areas and smaller cities have limited or no coverage.

The programme uses different terms in different sections, including sites, stations, and charging points. These terms may refer to different parts of the charging network and should not be treated as interchangeable.

Most existing points are AC chargers with a power rating of 2–22 kW. They are mainly used for slow or semi-fast charging. DC fast chargers, usually rated at 50–150 kW, are much less common. The programme counts about 15 DC points rated at 50 kW or above.

This figure appears to be significantly understated. Our own tracking data, based on six snapshots between December 2025 and July 2026, shows 113 DC stations as of mid-July 2026 — of which 65 were already operating in December 2025. Only 5–8 of these are rated below 50 kW, meaning that approximately 105–108 DC stations meet the programme’s own definition. Even accounting for possible differences in methodology, the gap between the programme’s baseline of 15 and independently collected data is a factor of seven.

The programme’s monitoring table sets the starting utilisation rate at “≤5%”.

Based on our own inventory of 286 installed charging stations and their combined peak capacity of approximately 17 MW, a simple capacity-based estimate gives annual electricity consumption of roughly 4.5–7.5 GWh at 3–5% utilisation.

This is our estimate, not a figure reported in the programme. It assumes that the 17 MW figure represents the combined peak capacity of the public charging stations installed in Moldova at the time of analysis.

Actual electricity use will depend on the charger mix, simultaneous use, downtime, and how the programme defines utilisation.

The network exists, but it is underused. For charging operators, the immediate business case depends more on location than on the total number of vehicles.

DC chargers on TEN-T routes and near border crossings have the strongest potential for regular use. AC chargers at urban destinations face more competition from home and workplace charging and may have lower daily throughput.

Investors should therefore plan around current utilisation patterns rather than relying only on the programme’s 2030 targets.

The programme targets 600 charging points by 2030. The objectives section, however, refers to “at least 500”, while the monitoring table lists 600. Of the planned points, 180 are expected to be DC fast or ultra-fast points.

Using the programme’s own baseline of 15 DC points, this would represent a twelvefold increase. Using our independently collected figure of approximately 108 DC points rated at 50 kW or above, the target of 180 represents a more modest expansion of roughly 70%. The difference matters for planning: a twelvefold expansion implies a market being built from scratch, while a 70% expansion implies scaling an existing network. These are very different investment propositions.

One important omission is the country’s existing electric public transport network. The trolleybus systems in Chișinău and Bălți are among Moldova’s largest electric transport systems, but they do not appear in the 48-page programme.

A national electric mobility programme that does not mention the country’s main electric public transport systems leaves an important part of the market outside the analysis.

The energy equation: the largest gap in the programme

The energy section shows the largest gap between the programme’s targets and its supporting calculations.

The programme cites a projection from Moldova’s grid development plan. According to this projection, electricity consumption from EVs will grow from 4.3 GWh in 2025 to 77.8 GWh in 2030.

The programme’s own fleet targets point to a much higher figure.

Using an assumed annual mileage of 12,000 km for BEVs and 4,000 km of electric driving for PHEVs, together with average consumption of 17 kWh per 100 km for BEVs and 20 kWh per 100 km for PHEVs, the target fleet would use roughly 178 GWh of electricity per year.

This is more than twice the programme’s cited projection.

The 178 GWh figure is our estimate based on stated assumptions. It is not a figure included in the programme. It describes the estimated electricity use of the target fleet. The amount taken from Moldova’s public grid would depend on where vehicles are charged, including homes, workplaces, public stations, and possibly other countries.

The energy forecast and the fleet targets appear to come from different sources and have not been fully reconciled.

There is an additional uncertainty in the PHEV figure. The programme’s Table 1 labels the baseline of 77,985 hybrid vehicles as “PHEV.” However, the same figure appears in the programme’s text (paragraph 42) simply as “hybrids,” without a plug-in distinction. If the baseline includes conventional hybrids — which is likely — then both the 110,000 PHEV target and the resulting energy estimate carry additional uncertainty.

Even using only the BEV target of 45,000 vehicles, estimated electricity demand (91.8 GWh) already exceeds the programme’s cited projection of 77.8 GWh. Any non-zero PHEV contribution would widen the gap further.

Moldova remains heavily dependent on imported electricity. The programme uses an estimate of approximately 85%, while recent monthly figures vary depending on domestic generation and market conditions.

Romania is Moldova’s main external electricity source in many periods. In August 2026, Romania declared a nationwide state of alert after drought and low Danube water levels reduced electricity production and raised concerns about the operation of the Cernavodă nuclear plant.

Earlier in 2026, Moldova experienced two major power disruptions. A nationwide outage in January followed problems in the Ukrainian electricity grid. In March, Moldova declared a 60-day energy emergency after Russian strikes damaged a key transmission line.

The programme targets a 40% renewable share in electricity used for EV charging by 2030. The action plan contains one measure linked to this goal: the “elaboration of a mechanism” for using renewable electricity at public charging points. The deadline is the fourth quarter of 2028.

No further details are provided.

The market conditions are also difficult. According to sectoral analyses, more than half of Moldova’s renewable energy producers face a risk of bankruptcy because of market imbalances. Solar production can exceed demand during the day, while the system has limited storage capacity and higher demand later in the day.

Battery energy storage is mentioned four times in the programme’s analytical text. It does not appear in the action plan. There are no specific storage actions, deadlines, or budget allocations.

Moldova’s Ministry of Energy is developing separate plans for battery storage with their own timelines and budgets. The EV programme does not refer to these plans.

The 40% renewable charging target therefore has no clear delivery mechanism. Battery storage could help manage the difference between daytime solar production and evening charging demand. The programme does not explain whether it will use storage, renewable electricity contracts, or another solution.

The money: 96% unfunded

The programme’s estimated cost is MDL 1.19 billion, or approximately €60 million, over five years.

The funding structure is:

• MDL 3.242 million, or 0.27%, confirmed in the medium-term budget framework;
• MDL 40.802 million, or 3.4%, covered by external assistance according to the programme text;
• MDL 1.147 billion, or 96.3%, listed as “uncovered costs”.

The programme’s summary table gives a different figure for external assistance: MDL 48.802 million. The document does not explain this difference. The higher figure also creates a mismatch with the stated total programme cost.

The largest line items are also entirely unfunded:

• EV purchase subsidies: MDL 240 million;
• public transport fleet renewal: MDL 150 million;
• charging infrastructure along TEN-T corridors: MDL 200.9 million;
• infrastructure outside Chișinău: MDL 160.8 million.

€60 million over five years is a modest amount compared with large European transport programmes. Even at this scale, however, the programme does not identify funding sources for 96% of its estimated cost.

The policy signal: incentives are changing quickly

The programme also needs to be read in the wider policy context.

On 1 January 2026, Moldova introduced a road tax for electric vehicles based on vehicle weight. Until then, EVs had been exempt from this tax.

In August 2026, the same week the EV programme was presented, the Prime Minister announced plans to introduce excise duties on imported electric vehicles. He said that electric vehicles had “become too accessible in terms of price”.

The programme’s own risk table warns about “legislative instability and frequent changes to fiscal and financial incentives for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure”.

The announcement made this risk especially visible. It came at the same time as the programme included an unfunded MDL 240 million line for EV purchase subsidies.

In seven months, three policy changes have affected EV incentives:

• the previous exemption was removed;
• a road tax was introduced;
• excise duties on imported electric vehicles were announced.

The first two measures are already in force. The excise duty was announced as a future policy change and should not be treated as an adopted measure until the relevant legislation is approved.

Bottom line

Moldova’s EV market is real. The fleet is growing, although it remains small compared with the total vehicle fleet. Charging infrastructure exists, but its use is still limited and concentrated in a few locations.

The government recognises the need for a national policy framework. That is a positive starting condition.

The distance between the programme and market reality is still significant. The energy projections do not match the fleet targets. The renewable energy goal has no detailed delivery mechanism. Storage appears in the analysis but not in the action plan. The budget is 96% unfunded. Fiscal policy is also moving in a different direction from the programme’s goal of faster EV adoption.

For investors, charging operators, and development partners, the programme is a map of government intentions. It is not yet a complete investment plan.

The next step is to test those intentions against the conditions on the ground: the quality of the data, the capacity of the grid, the availability of financing, and the stability of the rules.

Data sources: National Electric Mobility Programme 2030, draft No. 804/MIDR/2026; National Bureau of Statistics; Public Services Agency vehicle registration data; CNED pre-feasibility study presentation, 9 June 2026; Energocom; ANRE; and the Ministry of Energy’s grid development plan for 2025–2034. Transport data dashboard available at moldovadecoded.com.