Executive Summary

Moldova operates 247 charging stations with a total capacity of 13.8 MW. They were built ahead of demand. The BEV fleet stands at 9,849 vehicles (0.87% of the 1.13 million total vehicle fleet). Average infrastructure utilization is ~4.5%. In practice, only about 621 kW out of 13,800 installed is actually being used.

Starting in 2026, BEVs — previously fully exempt from road tax — are now taxed based on vehicle weight. Lightweight BEVs (Dacia Spring) still pay less than their ICE counterparts, but mid-size and large BEVs (Renault Zoe, Tesla Model 3, Hyundai Ioniq 5) overpay by 241–587 MDL/year. The battery makes a BEV heavier than an ICE vehicle of the same class — the tax is structurally disadvantageous for most popular models.

The core problem is not a shortage of chargers, but a shortage of electric vehicles. The new tax makes it worse.

This report proposes two infrastructure tracks and one regulatory track:

Optimization of the existing urban network. Not new construction, but a location audit and relocation of equipment from low-traffic sites to higher-utilization areas. Requires minimal investment.

New construction along TEN-T corridors. The only segment with real international traffic and access to EU funding. Requires AFIR compliance and strict regulatory oversight.

Tax policy revision. The new road tax directly contradicts EV market development goals. Without its repeal or compensatory measures, BEV fleet growth will slow.

1. Context

Moldova’s population is approximately 2.4 million and shrinking (cities −7%, rural areas −18% over the past 20 years). A significant portion of the population has income levels incompatible with purchasing an electric vehicle. Under these conditions, BEVs remain a product for the upper end of the income distribution.

The BEV fleet grew from ~120 (2018) to 9,849 (end of 2025) — an 82-fold increase, with a CAGR of 73.5% over 8 years. The share of the total vehicle fleet is 0.87%, which is 17 times below the 15% threshold at which AFIR revises its requirements. The country also has ~78,000 registered hybrids, but public statistics do not distinguish between HEVs (not grid-chargeable) and PHEVs (grid-chargeable). Without this data, charging demand estimates are imprecise.

For comparison: BEV share in Norway’s fleet is 32%, the EU average is 4–5%. Moldova is at the very beginning.

2. Infrastructure Status

247 stations with a total capacity of 13,800 kW (13.8 MW) across 48 localities. Average station capacity: 55.9 kW. 87 fast chargers (35%) are DC or DC+AC. 63% of stations are in Chișinău.

* Number of localities determined by spatial clustering (DBSCAN, 5.5 km radius).

3. Operator Tariffs

Charging tariffs range from 6.00 to 9.50 MDL/kWh. Average DC tariff is 9.34 MDL/kWh (~€0.47), average AC tariff is 7.25 MDL/kWh (~€0.36). The narrow spread across operators indicates price consensus rather than competition.

For comparison: the average public DC charging tariff in the EU is €0.45–0.65/kWh. Moldovan tariffs are at the lower end of the European range, which is consistent with income levels.

4. Supply-Demand Imbalance

Average infrastructure utilization is ~4.5%. Over 95% of capacity sits idle. Economically sustainable utilization is considered to be 15–20% for AC and 25–30% for DC. The average across EU public networks is 8–12%.

* AFIR formally applies to EU member states. Moldova, as a candidate country, uses AFIR benchmarks as targets within its EU integration framework.

Moldova meets AFIR requirements for capacity per BEV (+8% above the benchmark). However, formal compliance does not equal market viability. Reaching 25% utilization would require ~55,000 BEVs — a 5.6-fold increase.

5. Road Tax

Since January 1, 2026, BEVs — previously fully exempt from road tax — are taxed based on weight: 0.60–1.80 MDL/kg depending on weight class. The battery makes a BEV heavier than an ICE vehicle of the same class — the tax is structurally disadvantageous for mid-size and large BEVs.

The Ioniq 5 pays 587 MDL more than a BMW 3-series 2.0L — despite being comparable in class. Only the lightest BEV (Dacia Spring) comes out ahead; all others lose.

6. Two Infrastructure Tracks

Track 1: Urban Network Optimization

63% of stations are in Chișinău, some in low-traffic locations. Instead of building new ones — relocate existing equipment to high-traffic sites: the airport, major shopping centers, city entry points, transport hubs.

Location audit is a procedure for evaluating each station against a set of objective metrics, leading to a decision: keep in place, relocate, or optimize operating mode. It requires minimal investment but produces measurable results.

Audit metrics: electricity sold <1,000 kWh/month for three consecutive months; duplicate stations within 1 km radius without justification; distance from main roads >500 m; no commercial anchor — no shopping center, restaurant, office building, or hotel within 200 m.

Track 2: New Construction on TEN-T

TEN-T corridors carry guaranteed international traffic. AFIR requires fast chargers ≥150 kW every 60 km. TEN-T projects have access to CEF (Connecting Europe Facility) funding.

Current gaps: stretches >60 km between DC stations; most highway stations <150 kW; no interoperability for international users.

Minimum requirements: capacity ≥150 kW; CCS2 mandatory; OCPI protocol and roaming; uptime ≥95%; quarterly reporting to the regulator.

7. Recommendations

For the Government

Revise the Road Tax

The weight-based tax is systemically disadvantageous for mid-size and large BEVs. Recommended actions: exempt BEVs until 2030; switch the tax base to CO₂ emissions; or introduce a compensatory purchase subsidy.

Stimulate BEV Purchases

Abolish the road tax on BEVs or reduce VAT on purchases to 0–5%; reduce VAT on electricity for charging; introduce preferential customs processing for used BEVs from the EU; tax incentives for corporate fleets and taxis.

Mandatory Data Transparency

Require operators to publish utilization data quarterly. Introduce separate HEV/PHEV classification in the vehicle registry.

Ensure Access to Grid Capacity

DSOs publish maps of available capacity; regulatory connection deadline for TEN-T sites capped at 6 months; TEN-T priority in the national grid development plan; DSOs proactively reinforce grid nodes at potential TEN-T locations — before connection applications are filed.

For UNDP and Donors

Do not fund general urban infrastructure. Support the location audit methodology and pilot with operators. Provide technical assistance for CEF access on TEN-T projects. Support the development of a national mobility strategy.

For Operators

Conduct a utilization audit and identify relocation candidates. Develop the B2B segment: corporate fleets, taxis, logistics. Partnerships with retail, gas stations, hotels. Dynamic pricing during low-demand hours. Ensure interoperability for international aggregators.

8. Scenario Analysis

To assess when infrastructure reaches self-sufficiency (25% utilization), approximately 55,000 BEVs are needed — a 5.6-fold increase from the current fleet. Three scenarios are presented below, depending on regulatory conditions.

The base scenario assumes a CAGR of 30% — a deceleration from the historical 73.5% over 2018–2025, which is realistic as the base grows. The pessimistic scenario (CAGR 20%) reflects the consequences of retaining the tax and investment uncertainty. The optimistic scenario (CAGR 45%) is possible with comprehensive incentives but requires coordination across multiple ministries.

Key takeaway: the difference between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios is 4 years. That is the cost of regulatory inaction.

9. Investment Context

In October 2025, a memorandum was signed at Moldova Business Week for the construction of a charging equipment manufacturing plant in Strășeni (€20 million investment, Zener Group / New Energy Technology, China). The project is export-oriented toward the EU. As of the date of this report, not a single Moldovan-manufactured charging station has appeared on the market. The project is significant as a signal of industrial potential, but its impact on the domestic market is currently zero.

10. Risks

11. Conclusion

Moldova built its infrastructure ahead of demand. The newly introduced road tax compounds the problem: the government declares support for electromobility on one hand while introducing a tax that is structurally disadvantageous for mid-size and large BEVs on the other.

The proposed two-track approach — urban network optimization and targeted TEN-T construction — allows infrastructure work without excessive investment. But both tracks only work with a growing BEV fleet. Without demand stimulation, infrastructure measures lose their purpose.

Key condition: tax policy revision + mandatory publication of utilization data.

Under the base scenario (CAGR 30%), the market can reach 25% utilization by 2033. Under the optimistic scenario — by 2031. The 4-year gap between scenarios is the cost of regulatory inaction. The pessimistic scenario (25% utilization by 2035) implies the likely exit of some operators before the self-sufficiency threshold is reached.

Data Sources

Charging station data collected by the author from operator mobile apps, January–February 2026. Clustering: DBSCAN (5.5 km radius). BEV/hybrid fleet data: National Center for Sustainable Energy (CNED), Agency of Public Services (ASP), February 2026 — 9,849 BEVs, ~78,000 hybrids. Total vehicle fleet: ~1.13 million (Logos Press / ASP). ICE tax rates: bmtest.md; BEV rates: platasso.md, November 2025. Operator tariffs: data from operators, January–February 2026. Regulations: Regulation (EU) 2023/1804 (AFIR); Directive 2014/94/EU (AFID). Investment data: Invest Moldova Agency, October 2025. HEV/PHEV breakdown unavailable; calculations are estimates.