Moldova population trends 2016–2026

July 28, 2026

Population trends 2016–2026 · National Bureau of Statistics

Population 2026

2.37M

Lost in 10 years

−460K

Chișinău share

30.2%

Working age

62.1%

Part 1

The country is losing people every year

Between 2016 and 2026, Moldova lost about 460,000 people — a drop of 16.3%. The population fell from 2.83 million to 2.37 million. That is roughly 46,000 people per year, or a mid-sized town disappearing annually.

The sharpest drops came in 2022–2024 (up to −3.1% per year). This is partly because the 2024 census showed the real numbers: many people had already left the country, but the old estimates from the 2014 census did not count them. In 2025–2026, the decline slowed to about 1% per year.

Total population

Key number: Moldova lost 16.3% of its population in just 10 years. At this pace, the country could fall below 2 million before 2040.

Part 2

Chișinău is absorbing the country

Chișinău is the only place in Moldova that actually grew — by 46,000 people (+6.9%). Meanwhile, every other part of the country shrank. The capital’s share jumped from 23.7% in 2016 to 30.2% in 2026. Nearly one in three Moldovans now lives in Chișinău.

The urban-rural balance is also shifting: the urban share rose from 39.7% to 47.1%. But this is less about cities growing and more about villages emptying faster.

Chișinău vs. the rest of the country

Chișinău Rest of Moldova

Chișinău’s growing share
In 2016, about 1 in 4 Moldovans (23.7%) lived in Chișinău. By 2026, the number is closer to 1 in 3 (30.2%) — a gain of 6.5 percentage points in a single decade. The capital did not just hold its ground while the rest declined; it actually added people, growing from 668,000 to 714,000. This concentration mirrors a pattern common in small post-Soviet states where the capital becomes the dominant economic magnet.

Part 3

The population is getting older

Working-age people (15–64) made up 69.9% of the population in 2016. By 2026, that fell to 62.1%. At the same time, the share of people aged 65 and over grew from 12.0% to 18.6%.

The most dramatic collapse is among young adults. The 20–24 age group shrank by half (−50%), and the 25–29 group lost nearly 60%. These are the people who left for work abroad. The 65–69 and 70–74 groups, on the other hand, grew by 30% and 77% respectively.

The dependency ratio — how many children and retirees each 100 working-age people must support — jumped from 43 to 61. This puts growing pressure on pensions, healthcare, and the economy.

Age structure (%)

0–14 years 15–64 years 65+ years

Change by age group, 2016 → 2026

Decline Growth

Brain drain in numbers: The 20–29 age group lost more than half its people. These are the workers, taxpayers, and future parents Moldova can no longer count on.

Part 4

Which districts lost the most?

Every single district in Moldova lost population — no exceptions. The worst losses are in the northern and southern periphery: Ocnița (−31.4%), Briceni (−29.7%), Leova (−29.6%), Glodeni (−29.5%).

The districts with the smallest decline are either suburbs of Chișinău — like Ialoveni (−11.4%) — or Bălți (−9.5%), the country’s second-largest city and the main urban center in northern Moldova, which acts as a regional hub attracting people from nearby districts.

Population change by district, 2016 → 2026 (%)

Change by macro-region (%)

No district grew. Even the “best” performer, Bălți, still lost nearly 10% of its people. The only net growth in the whole country belongs to Chișinău.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (Biroul Național de Statistică).
Data covers usual resident population, excluding Transnistria and Bender.
2016–2023 estimates are based on the 2014 census; 2024–2026 are based on the 2024 census. The 2026 figure is preliminary.